Wind Energy Trading Benefits Through Short Term Forecasting(Summary from a recent paper presented by GH at EWEC 2006)As the level of penetration of wind energy into individual grids has increased it has become necessary to make wind energy appear much more like conventional plant and hence to forecast the power production of wind farms. Historically there have been a number of studies investigating the possible methods of forecasting and the accuracy of their predictions. However, there have been a limited number of studies investigating the potential benefit of forecasting. This paper aims to address the issue by quantifying the potential financial benefits of forecasting for both individual, and portfolios of wind farms in the UK and Spain. In the UK the market conditions are such that the benefit of forecasting wind farm production has been evaluated based on open market prices. For the Spanish case there is a more structured wind energy trading system whereby participants in the pool market are required to forecast. For both the UK and Spanish cases the trading calculations use data from online forecasting services combined with assumptions of the market conditions. Based on the forecast data analysed and the assumptions used, there is the potential for increasing the value of wind energy in the UK and Spain by the amounts shown below:
Associated DocumentationWind Energy Trading Benefits Through Short Term Forecasting (PDF) Wind Energy Trading Benefits Through Short Term Forecasting Presentation (PDF) GH Forecaster Paper EWEC2004 (PDF) Short Term Forecasting – The Power Model Challenge (PDF) |
